Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world

Abstract

This study leverages the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) version 4.0 climate model to examine the mechanisms behind the recent intensification of winter stationary waves over western North America. Prescribed sea surface temperature warming forces a strengthening of westerly winds, amplifying the ridge that characterizes the stationary waves in western North America. The streamfunction budget analysis reveals relative vorticity advection is mainly associated with this process. We further show that ocean warming is the primary driver of changes in westerly winds and stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere. Sea ice losses exert a considerable effect through a different mechanism, complementing the dominant influence of ocean warming on these atmospheric changes. Our results thus reveal the crucial role tropical oceans play in modulating global warming's effect on the stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere and add a more quantitative perspective to the previously reported influence of Arctic amplification.