Robust Decision-Making Framework for Demand-Side Flexibility against Electricity Market uncertainty

Abstract

Global decarbonization policies mandate an unprecedent deployment of variable renewable energy, whose non- dispatchability extends supply-side uncertainty into a structural dimension of power-system operation. As supply-side remedies reach limits in capital intensity and deployment speed, demand-side flexibility emerges as the only flexibility resource physically deployable in time under current decarbonization trajectories. Its realization, however, is impeded by structural obstacles at three layers: planning, operation, and market. This dissertation proposes a robust decision-making framework for demand-side flexibility realization, composed of three layer-specific models whose integra ion secures this realization end-to-end. At the planning layer, a stochastic hosting-capacity framework embedding a net-load deviation index is proposed to identify a renewable accommodation level robust against the VRE-induced net-load variability that conve tional technical indices leave unaddressed. At the operation layer, a charging-station-centered aggregation framework is proposed for mobilizing public electric-vehicle charging, robust against the decoupled governance under which physical charging control and market participation responsibility resid in different entities. At the market layer, a decision-dependent distributionally robust bidding framework is proposed for a price-maker retailer under market liberalization. It is robust against two sources of uncertainty: the decision-dependent influence of the retailer's own bid on the clearing-price distribution, and the distributional ambiguity arising from the absence of historical observations on the new regime. Together, the three models complete the robust decision-making framework posited in the title of this work, offering system planners, aggregators, and regulators a coherent set of decision-making tools for the renewable-driven energy transition.