Channel Allocation and Equity in Preventive Campaigns for Older Adults: Agent-Based Modeling Study

Abstract

Background: Preventive campaigns for older adults must decide how to allocate limited resources across media channels. However, these channel allocation and budget decisions rarely use explicit criteria for distributional equity or structured strategic planning tools. Consequently, health systems may optimize average uptake while leaving large gaps across socioeconomic groups and media use profiles. Objective: This study aimed to develop and apply a data-driven agent-based model as a strategic planning tool for preventive campaigns targeting older adults, comparing channel allocation, personalization, and loss framing options under explicit budget and equity guardrails. Methods: We built an agent-based model calibrated to national survey data from South Korea on influenza vaccination and routine health screening among older adults (vaccination, N=2405; screening, N=2400). Fifteen prespecified campaign scenarios varied channel allocation across television, digital, and print media; budget intensity; 2 equity-focused personalization strategies; and graded loss framing. Primary outcomes were final adoption and time to adoption. Equity outcomes included the minimum class-level adoption and 90-10 gap across latent classes. Each scenario was simulated over 12 monthly steps with 100 Monte Carlo replications. We conducted sensitivity analyses varying link functions and key social reinforcement parameters. Results: Personalization improved uptake and equity relative to the integrated baseline. In the vaccination model (N=2405), adoption increased from 91.2% (n=2193) to 93.3% (n=2244) and 94.6% (n=2275). Minimum class-level adoption increased from 86.8% to 90.3% and 90.9%. The 90-10 gap narrowed from 5.7 to 4.5 and 4.7 percentage points. In the screening model (N=2400), adoption increased from 83.8% (n=2011) to 88.2% (n=2117) and 89.5% (n=2148). Minimum class-level adoption increased from 77.6% to 83.2% and 85.3%. The 90-10 gap narrowed from 9.2 to 7.4 and 6.2 percentage points. Television-only strategies achieved high adoption but had less favorable equity profiles than personalization. High-budget strategies achieved high adoption but required higher total exposure. Stronger loss framing produced small, monotonic gains in adoption and shortened the time to adoption without worsening equity in the tested range. Scenario rankings were stable in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: This agent-based modeling study illustrates how ex ante planning can improve preventive campaign design by comparing channel allocation and personalization options under explicit equity and budget criteria. For campaigns targeting older adults, equity-focused reweighting and class-tailored television-digital portfolios improved or preserved mean adoption while strengthening distributional equity under fixed budgets. In contrast, undifferentiated channel diversification without personalization offered a less favorable efficiency-equity trade-off. These findings support integrating explicit equity guardrails into early-stage channel allocation and prioritizing targeted personalization over simple channel diversification. Future work should validate these patterns in other populations and health systems and link simulated diffusion trajectories with observed exposure and engagement in real-world campaigns. It should also extend guardrail-based planning tools to organizational settings and multiyear decision contexts.