Agent-based Electric Vehicle Behavior Dynamics Model for Fleet Operation within a Virtual Power Plant

Abstract

Growing EV adoption is reshaping how Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) interact with the grid. This study builds a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) operation framework centered on EV behavioral dynamics, connecting individual driving and charging behaviors with the physical and economic layers of energy management. The EV behavioral dynamic model quantifies the stochastic travel, parking, and charging behaviors of individual EVs through an Agent-Based Trip and Charging Chain (AB-TCC) simulation, producing a Behavioral Flexibility Trace (BFT) that represents time-resolved EV availability and flexibility. The Forecasting Model employs a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network trained on historical meteorological data to predict short-term renewable generation and represent physical variability. The two-stage optimization model integrates behavioral and physical information with market price signals to coordinate day-ahead scheduling and real-time operation, minimizing procurement costs and mitigating imbalance penalties. Simulation results indicate that the proposed framework yields approximately a 15% increase in revenue over 7 days through EV-based flexibility utilization. These findings demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively leverages EV flexibility to manage renewable generation variability, thereby enhancing both the profitability and operational reliability of VPPs in local distribution systems.