Predicting As Contamination Risk in Red River Delta using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Excessive presence of As level in groundwater is a major health problem worldwide. In the Red River Delta in Vietnam, several million residents possess a high risk of chronic As poisoning. The As releases into groundwater caused by natural process through microbially-driven reductive dissolution of Fe (III) oxides. It has been extracted by Red River residents using private tube wells for drinking and daily purposes because of their unawareness of the contamination. This long-term consumption of As-contaminated groundwater could lead to various health problems. Therefore, a predictive model would be useful to expose contamination risks of the wells in the Red River Delta Vietnam area. This study used four machine learning algorithms to predict the As probability of study sites in Red River Delta, Vietnam. The GBM was the best performing model with the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity of 98.7%, 100%, 95.2%, and 100%, respectively. In addition, it resulted the highest AUC of 92% and 96% for the PRC and ROC curves, with Eh and Fe as the most important variables. The partial dependence plot of As concentration on the model parameters showed that the probability of high level of As is related to the low number of wells’ depth, Eh, and SO4, along with high PO43− and NH4+. This condition triggers the reductive dissolution of iron phases, thus releasing As into groundwater.